FEARS that Heathrow Airport will exceed its limit on flights well before Terminal 5 has been built have been confirmed by both HACAN and the British Airports Authority (BAA).

Transport Secretary Stephen Byers limited the total number of flights per year to 480,000 once the new terminal is completed in 2007 when he approved the controversial development in November last year.

But a new report by mathematician David Franklin for pressure group HACAN Clearskies, entitled Pushing the Limit, estimates that this limit will be reached as early as mid-2003 if Heathrow continues to expand at the rate of 9,000 flights per year, as it did in the 1990s. It goes on to question whether the government is serious about restricting the number of flights once T5 opens.

"We just hope that the government is not trying to pull a fast one," said Mr Franklin.

But while HACAN's date has been dismissed by BAA, a spokesman confirmed that the limit would be reached before 2007 and said that the authority is examining how it will meet the government's limit.

"We will need to discuss a number of detailed issues with the local planning authority as there remains a considerable amount of work to be done before we can give a full and substantive explanation of how we intend to respond," he said. "For instance, the size of aircraft can be increased to limit the number of flights per day."

HACAN chairman John Stewart stands by his figures, however, and has asked: "If the limit is reached next year, is the government really telling us that it will cut the number of planes to 480,000 a year when T5 comes on-stream around 2007?"