Medina flooding its banks at Newport Quay.
WIGHT LIVING
IT MAY not feel like it, particularly after the brutal winter we have just endured, but global warming is still a reality.
Dodgy e-mails by climate researchers aside, if experts are to be believed, and Lord knows, after the University of East Anglia scandal some people at least are finding it hard to do so, we are all going to face the consequences of climate change over the next few decades.
While arguments continue about whether climate change is man-made or the result of natural variations in the earth’s climate, there is widespread agreement among scientists that sea levels are set to rise, perhaps by as much as a metre, in The Solent over the next 100 years or so.
While it is likely that 99.9 per cent of people reading this article won’t be in a position to care about that too much in 2110, our children, and our children’s children aren’t going to be too thrilled if they find themselves up to their necks in seawater and realise we could have done something about it.
Indeed, the Environment Agency has recently warned that if current sea defences are not maintained along the stretch of IW coastline between the Eastern Yar and Bembridge Harbour, more than 480 homes and businesses in low-lying areas could be at risk of flooding from an event that has a one in 200 chance of happening in any one year.
And with rising sea levels, this could increase to 730 homes and businesses at risk over the next 100 years.
The agency, working with the IW Council, recently hosted an exhibition on proposals to manage the under-threat stretch of coastline before final decisions are taken about tackling the threat of coastal flooding and erosion.
Among the proposals, the clumsily titled Eastern Yar Draft Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management Strategy recommends Embankment Road, Bembridge; Brading Marshes and the majority of properties at risk should have improved protection from coastal flooding.
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| The maps of Ryde and Yarmouth indicate what could happen if no action were taken to improve sea defences. |
The proposals will also help to support and maintain the needs of Bembridge Harbour.
However, the draft strategy also recognises that securing government funding for building and maintaining defences cannot be guaranteed.
The flooding issues at Bembridge aren’t the only ones the Island faces. The whole stretch of coastline between Yarmouth and Ryde is under threat from flooding if the projections from the Environment Agency are to be believed.
A map of Yarmouth shows the town surrounded by water, Cowes’s seafront disappears beneath the waves and in Ryde, Monkton Mead mutates into a river akin in size to the Itchen in Southampton.
John O’ Flynn, The Solent’s area flooding coastal risk manager, is admirably candid about how much cash the Environment Agency has to spend maintaining the Island’s flood defences at present — between £80,000 and £120,000 a year.
He reels off a list of protection schemes that have been put in place on the IW, including £20,000 spent at Wootton Bridge on tidal flaps, pumps installed at Monkton Mead in 2002, costing £1.4m, and a project on Sandown’s sea wall, where work was undertaken to repair erosion damage.
However, it is less easy for Mr O’Flynn to come up with a figure that will protect the Island from sea level rises projected to take place over the next century.
He said: "In terms of just cost, it is probably much too complicated. It is completely intertwined with how much sea levels rise.
"It depends on what happens to the defences and what is at risk."
Indeed, with some areas on the Island, it may be the case that the cost of maintaining defences is a price not worth paying and big political decisions will need to be made over the next few years as to how much communities and the national government are prepared to stump up to protect us from rising seawaters.
He said: "If it comes to the point, we have a withdrawal of maintenance option."
That sounds scary but the point is well made. Like most things in life, flood protection comes with associated costs. And it seems that communities, central government, and developers are all going to have to shoulder the costs of flood prevention works or see the IW slowly dissolve, like a giant lozenge, into The Solent.
James Humphreys, Solent and South Downs area manager for the Environment Agency, added: "We are urging communities to share their views on the recommended flood defence options before this consultation closes.
"With our climate changing and sea levels rising, the risks and the number of people affected is likely to increase. We have to take a long-term view of flood and erosion management for all our coastline including this stretch."
Cllr Edward Giles, IW Council cabinet member for environment and transport, added: "This strategy is all about taking the necessary steps to mitigate against the risks of such events occurring on the Island. It has been drafted after a long process of evidence gathering by professionals but local knowledge and input is extremely valuable too.
"That is why we are keen the communities, particularly those at risk of flooding, contribute to the process."
The Eastern Yar Draft Flood and Erosion Risk Management Strategy and the options appraisal report are available to download on www.environmentagency.gov.uk/consultations. You can also request a copy of the strategy by calling 08708 506506.
Copies are also available from Bembridge and Sandown Libraries, the Environment Agency offices and the Coastal Centre at Ventnor.
Reporter: davidn@iwcpmail.co.uk