The pace of retail sales growth slowed markedly in Scotland last month amid signs that shoppers were putting big purchases on hold in response to increased borrowing costs. However, growth in total spending continued at a robust rate.
The latest sales monitor from the Scottish Retail Consortium and Royal Bank of Scotland shows growth in total sales compared with last year fell to 4.9% in October, the lowest reading for 19 months.
With the rate of expansion well down on the 8.3% recorded in September, David Fenton, senior economic adviser at RBS, said the figures suggested that previously free-spending consumers may be starting to tighten their belts.
"October is often a quiet month on the high street, as retailers and shoppers get ready for the festive period, but the fall in the year-on-year growth rate hints at a more fundamental shift in behaviour. The higher cost of borrowing is surely part of that shift," said Fenton.
Retailers of floorcoverings and furniture struggled, suggesting worries about the prospects for the housing market following repeated increases in interest rates might have made people more reluctant to commit to larger purchases.
However, Fenton noted the rapid growth in food prices which has followed increases in energy and commodity costs may also have squeezed spending on other goods and services.
The picture was also clouded by the fact that people may have brought forward spending on winter clothing and shoes to September in response to cold weather in that month. By contrast October was mild.
Concerns about the prospect of a sharp cut in consumer spending, which has supported above trend growth in the Scottish economy, will be allayed by the fact that total sales increased much faster in Scotland than the 3% recorded across the UK. This continues a trend seen in recent months, possibly reflecting the fact that Scottish homeowners have on average had to take on lower mortgages than their peers south of the border.
However the SRC highlighted the fact that, stripping out the effect of store openings, like-for-like sales increased by just 0.2%, the slowest rate recorded since March 2006.
Across the UK like-for-like sales increased by 1%.
Fiona Moriarty, director of the Scottish Retail Consortium, said: "The weakest like-for-like sales growth since March 2006 shows it was a tough month for many Scottish retailers.
"They will hope these results are not an indicator of what is to come as the crucial Christmas trading period develops."
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